Will Bitcoin Keep Its Forward Momentum or Will It Retrace Back to $7000?
December has been a pretty boring month for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency traded between $7100 to $7500 for the majority of the month with a minor 48-hour dip to $6500. Bitcoin was relatively stable throughout December but was branded "boring" by a few.
January has been shaping up to be a more positive month for the asset. Bitcoin is currently trading at $8098 and some suspect it will go higher. The cryptocurrency gained some upper momentum and crossed above $8000 on January 7th. While it retracted below that mark for roughly 48 hours, it appears that Bitcoin has support levels at around $8000. This price increase is roughly 12% when compared to Bitcoin's December price.
Some cryptocurrency influencers believe this rally will continue onwards. This includes the CIO of the Altana Digital Currency Fund and known cryptocurrency personality Alistair Milne. He made a conservative prediction of Bitcoin's breakout reaching $9000.
Lets analyze the charts, and see if Milne's prediction rings true.
BTC/USD Weekly Review
Bitcoin continues to hold its higher prices which can be interpreted as BULLISH. All it needs is a catalyst to squeeze to the next major resistance in the 9K area. We continue to hold 1/3 of our original SWING TRADE position which triggered back in December, for its third target in the low 9Ks. The purpose of this evaluation is to share our insight and perspective as it relates to the actionable information derived from the ORDER FLOW of Bitcoin. Evaluating order flow offers practical clues about short term market intent which can be used to gauge general probabilities around specific market scenarios.
1. IF price decisively breaks 8325, and follows through beyond 8500, the low to mid 9Ks are likely to follow relatively quickly (short squeezes like this often unfold in a matter of hours thanks to short margin liquidations and new buyers).
2. If the price can stay above the 7600 area, the minor consolidation breakout has a greater chance of occurring. A close below this higher low support can take price back to the 7K minor support zone. This is all about "IF" not WHEN.
3. There is a major resistance around the 9500 to 10,200 area. This zone is the HIGHEST risk, lowest probability location to take on new swing trade longs (but a great place to take profits). Usually AFTER the move takes place, people ask, "Is NOW a good time to buy?" which my response is, "Where were you at 7250?". There was a week and a half of noise and even cheaper prices following our long entry back in December. Think in probabilities, NOT LOGIC.
4. 7275 to 5464 still represents the HIGH probability location for bullish reversals. This means IF there is any revisit, (especially to the 6550 area), we will view this as another opportunity for swing trades and inventory accumulation. Price may not revisit this area again any time soon.
5. Although short term bullish momentum is now in play, we do not consider this market free of the corrective consolidation that is has been in since the June peak. Lack of follow through is still is still an equal possibility and our profit expectations will be adjusted in this way UNTIL Bitcoin proves otherwise. In other words, we will trade this like a Wave 2, until Wave 3 is in play (which requires a break of 10,300 AT LEAST).
6. The fact that price is lingering near the 8500-resistance area is a typical sign of strength (weak markets do not linger at resistance levels, they sell off). This minor consolidation break-out can also prompt an alternate trade signal to go long upon the confirmation of a momentum continuation pattern like an inside bar.
Keep in mind these points represent part of the rationale that our decision-making process is based upon. Timing markets over the short term requires knowing what information carries actionable value and organizing it in a way that allows for a better sense of how ORDER FLOW is LIKELY to BEHAVE next. Order flow refers to price action based information that is either present or forward looking ( trend lines , S&R lines, chart patterns, candlesticks , etc.). In isolation, this information carries little to no value and is why so many inexperienced traders dismiss it as "useless" and say things like "outside bars don't work".
Written by Jonathan Ganor
Writer & cryptocurrency aficionado